Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 74.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 66.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
12
(15 meetings)
3
12
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Last 10: Tkachuk 1-9 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
1
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
8
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
3
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
48.6% (6,634)
+0.4%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
55.2% (829)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
44.3% (614)
+0.7%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Home
50.7% (1,428)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
P1
49.4%
49.0%
P2
51.3%
49.1%
P3
49.3%
48.4%
OT
57.1%
61.3%
Final 5 min
46.9%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024 | 2 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 19:04 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 14:19 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 3 | 11:41 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |