Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 47.8%). Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 95.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 61.4%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Last 7: Tkachuk 2-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
1
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
4
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
49.4% (867)
-1.9%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
56.0% (25)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
40.7% (216)
-28.2%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Home
49.9% (389)
46.5% (480)
Away
46.8% (376)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
P1
44.4%
48.7%
P2
51.8%
45.6%
P3
47.8%
49.1%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 14:19 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |