Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 70.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 96.2%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 66.7%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 80.2%
19.8%
80.2%
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Last 6: Tkachuk 1-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
4
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
50.7% (906)
-2.8%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
48.1% (108)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.4% (239)
-44.4%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
Home
56.0% (175)
49.8% (643)
Away
49.8% (205)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Tkachuk
Bjugstad
P1
55.0%
49.4%
P2
51.9%
50.5%
P3
47.3%
47.9%
OT
77.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024 | 2 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 19:04 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |