Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Acciari 53.9% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.5%
Defensive zone
Acciari 92.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 58.4%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Tkachuk
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Tkachuk
Acciari
Last 9: Tkachuk 4-5 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Acciari
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
5
Tkachuk
Acciari
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Acciari
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
55.6% (426)
-7.7%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
0.0% (2)
+57.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
52.1% (146)
-52.1%
On power play, Tkachuk has a +57.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Acciari is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (444).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Acciari
Home
56.0% (175)
55.2% (306)
Away
49.8% (205)
53.7% (268)
By Period
Tkachuk
Acciari
P1
55.0%
55.5%
P2
51.9%
54.3%
P3
47.3%
54.1%
OT
77.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
52.6%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:28 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:07 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 14:31 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |