Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.4%). Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 92.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 55.1%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Last 8: Tkachuk 5-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
1
Tkachuk
Kuraly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Tkachuk
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (183)
52.3% (982)
-6.9%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
41.9% (43)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
39.2% (245)
+60.8%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +60.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tkachuk is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Tkachuk shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Home
51.1% (233)
50.3% (680)
Away
49.0% (202)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Tkachuk
Kuraly
P1
42.9%
49.5%
P2
52.2%
49.6%
P3
53.7%
49.0%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 2 | 07:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:44 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |