Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Monahan 51.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 13-3 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 80.8%
Defensive zone
Monahan 91.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 68.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Tkachuk
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
3
(16 meetings)
13
3
Tkachuk
Monahan
Last 10: Tkachuk 9-1 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
8
0
Tkachuk
Monahan
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Tkachuk
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
51.1% (11,356)
-2.1%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
53.7% (2,580)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
46.0% (766)
-1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Monahan
Home
50.7% (1,428)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Tkachuk
Monahan
P1
49.4%
50.9%
P2
51.3%
51.7%
P3
49.3%
51.0%
OT
57.1%
53.5%
Final 5 min
46.9%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 04:49 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 10:12 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 09:27 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |