Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Monahan 52.4% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 77.7%
Defensive zone
Monahan 90.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 70.0%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Tkachuk
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Tkachuk
Monahan
Last 5: Tkachuk 5-0 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
0
Tkachuk
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
52.4% (853)
-1.4%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
58.6% (174)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
46.5% (144)
+3.5%
On power play, Monahan has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Monahan
Home
50.0% (140)
53.4% (624)
Away
52.2% (207)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Tkachuk
Monahan
P1
54.3%
53.7%
P2
50.0%
52.4%
P3
49.5%
51.6%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.1%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |