Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 59.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Monahan 54.5% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 71.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 93.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 62.7%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Tkachuk
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tkachuk
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Tkachuk
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
57.1% (871)
-9.2%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
53.1% (262)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.6% (139)
-44.6%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +44.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Tkachuk shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Monahan
Home
56.0% (175)
55.3% (644)
Away
49.8% (205)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Tkachuk
Monahan
P1
55.0%
53.9%
P2
51.9%
55.3%
P3
47.3%
54.4%
OT
77.8%
76.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |