Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Saad wins 40.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Saad 42.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Saad 78.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 51.0%
Neutral zone
Saad 66.9%
Result
Brandon Saad favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Saad
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Saad
Pavelski
Last 6: Saad 2-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Saad
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Saad
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Saad
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Saad
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (532)
53.6% (8,791)
-13.0%
Power Play
49.6% (113)
58.2% (2,122)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (68)
50.9% (1,138)
-12.7%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Saad is 40.3% vs right-shot opponents (278).
Saad shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Saad
Pavelski
Home
42.5% (367)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
41.0% (346)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Saad
Pavelski
P1
41.7%
53.5%
P2
41.2%
55.2%
P3
43.1%
53.9%
OT
36.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
38.5%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Saad
28.0%▼
38.0%
41.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 15:21 | Defensive | Brandon Saad |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2018 | 3 | 12:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |