Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Point shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Point 47.0% (+13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 71.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 96.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 92.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
Matthews
Point
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Matthews
Point
Last 6: Matthews 5-1 Point
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Point
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Point
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Point
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Point
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
46.0% (430)
+13.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
49.5% (105)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
20.0% (5)
+36.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +36.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Point shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Point is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (400).
Home / Away
Matthews
Point
Home
60.0% (520)
46.9% (243)
Away
59.3% (452)
46.1% (297)
By Period
Matthews
Point
P1
60.2%
46.1%
P2
58.2%
45.6%
P3
60.4%
48.6%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Point
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 01:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:33 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |