Scouting Report
Brayden Point holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs Novak 43.3% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 61.6%
Defensive zone
Novak 65.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 67.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Point
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Point
Novak
Last 6: Point 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Point
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Point
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Point
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,183)
42.1% (1,539)
+6.2%
Power Play
53.9% (1,043)
51.9% (133)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
50.0% (2)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Point is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,402).
Point shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Point
Novak
Home
49.1% (3,733)
45.3% (814)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Point
Novak
P1
46.8%
43.9%
P2
51.4%
42.8%
P3
48.0%
41.7%
OT
52.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
48.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:41 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |