Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaunce on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaunce wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 52.5% vs Carter 60.1% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 75.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 93.6%
Neutral zone
Carter 80.2%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 81.5%
18.5%
81.5%
Gaunce
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Gaunce
Carter
Last 7: Gaunce 6-1 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
4
0
Gaunce
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gaunce
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (170)
65.6% (262)
-11.5%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
68.3% (63)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
50.5% (99)
-0.5%
On power play, Carter has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Gaunce is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (45).
Gaunce shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Carter
Home
51.4% (107)
64.3% (207)
Away
57.3% (75)
60.8% (217)
By Period
Gaunce
Carter
P1
63.4%
65.3%
P2
46.3%
60.1%
P3
55.4%
63.8%
Final 5 min
58.0%
65.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
53.8%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:07 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:49 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |