Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaunce on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaunce wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 51.9% vs Carter 53.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Gaunce leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 87.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.4%
Neutral zone
Carter 70.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 74.0%
26.0%
74.0%
Gaunce
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Gaunce
Carter
Last 10: Gaunce 8-2 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
4
0
Gaunce
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Gaunce
Carter
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (894)
53.3% (8,728)
-1.6%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
57.3% (1,554)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (92)
46.3% (1,087)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Gaunce has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Gaunce is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (328).
Gaunce shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Carter
Home
49.9% (525)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
54.5% (470)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Gaunce
Carter
P1
53.6%
53.6%
P2
47.4%
52.8%
P3
55.0%
53.1%
Final 5 min
54.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
52.1%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:07 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:49 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Dec 28, 2016 | 1 | 08:26 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 2 | 03:26 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |