Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs Larkin 52.4% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 70.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 73.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Howden
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Howden
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
3
0
Howden
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
51.7% (878)
-1.3%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
58.5% (246)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
48.2% (166)
+0.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Howden is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (257).
Howden shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Howden
Larkin
Home
47.7% (195)
52.4% (647)
Away
52.8% (233)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Howden
Larkin
P1
51.1%
52.2%
P2
52.6%
53.1%
P3
48.8%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
61.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |