Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.0% vs Larkin 52.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Howden 73.3%
Defensive zone
Howden 75.8%
Neutral zone
Howden 74.5%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Howden
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
17
(27 meetings)
10
17
Howden
Larkin
Last 10: Howden 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
7
Howden
Larkin
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
7
4
Howden
Larkin
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
6
Howden
Larkin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,905)
51.7% (9,019)
-2.1%
Power Play
50.5% (111)
58.5% (2,125)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (315)
50.2% (1,122)
-7.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Howden is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,152).
Howden shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Howden
Larkin
Home
48.4% (1,608)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
49.6% (1,723)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Howden
Larkin
P1
49.5%
52.7%
P2
48.0%
53.1%
P3
49.9%
52.1%
OT
39.3%
58.4%
Final 5 min
48.6%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:57 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |