Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Howden wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.5% vs Larkin 52.3% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 67.5%
Defensive zone
Howden 86.2%
Neutral zone
Howden 75.8%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Howden
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Howden
Larkin
Last 9: Howden 1-8 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
5
Howden
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Howden
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Howden
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (417)
51.0% (973)
-4.0%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
59.5% (252)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
53.0% (83)
49.6% (137)
+3.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Howden is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Howden shoots left. Larkin is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (851).
Home / Away
Howden
Larkin
Home
44.8% (268)
54.9% (721)
Away
51.8% (253)
49.6% (641)
By Period
Howden
Larkin
P1
51.6%
52.4%
P2
43.7%
50.8%
P3
50.0%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
46.5%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
48.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |