Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Howden wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs Barzal 41.4% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 58.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 50.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 54.3%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Howden
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Howden
Barzal
Last 7: Howden 3-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Howden
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
3
Howden
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
40.4% (463)
+10.0%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
34.2% (38)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
28.6% (7)
+19.7%
On power play, Howden has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Howden is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Howden shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Howden
Barzal
Home
47.7% (195)
38.1% (244)
Away
52.8% (233)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Howden
Barzal
P1
51.1%
46.6%
P2
52.6%
35.7%
P3
48.8%
37.7%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |