Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.5% vs Frost 54.9% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.2%
Defensive zone
Frost 71.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 81.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 81.2%
18.8%
81.2%
Howden
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Howden
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
0
Howden
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (358)
54.1% (521)
-3.3%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
59.6% (141)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
100.0% (5)
-54.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +54.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Howden is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Howden shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Home / Away
Howden
Frost
Home
47.7% (174)
57.2% (339)
Away
53.0% (219)
54.0% (328)
By Period
Howden
Frost
P1
53.3%
58.2%
P2
51.1%
55.6%
P3
49.2%
52.9%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
34.0%▼
48.0%
50.6%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |