Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs Frost 55.7% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 75.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 82.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 82.6%
17.4%
82.6%
Howden
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Howden
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
0
Howden
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
54.9% (701)
-4.5%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
60.8% (166)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
100.0% (5)
-51.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +51.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Howden is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (257).
Howden shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Howden
Frost
Home
47.7% (195)
56.0% (443)
Away
52.8% (233)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Howden
Frost
P1
51.1%
58.9%
P2
52.6%
55.3%
P3
48.8%
54.0%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |