Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Howden wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 52.3% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.2%
Defensive zone
Howden 57.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.2%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Howden
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Howden
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Howden
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
4
2
Howden
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Howden
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (459)
49.2% (1,266)
+4.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
54.9% (193)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (52)
49.1% (55)
-1.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Howden is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Howden shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Howden
MacKinnon
Home
48.8% (258)
50.9% (740)
Away
56.6% (258)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Howden
MacKinnon
P1
54.0%
50.9%
P2
53.2%
51.8%
P3
50.9%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 16:27 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |