Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Howden wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.3%
Defensive zone
Howden 71.5%
Neutral zone
Howden 55.0%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Howden
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Howden
MacKinnon
Last 10: Howden 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Howden
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
1
Howden
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Howden
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
50.0% (992)
+0.4%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
64.9% (148)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
34.4% (32)
+13.9%
On penalty kill, Howden has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Howden is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Howden shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Howden
MacKinnon
Home
47.7% (195)
53.3% (591)
Away
52.8% (233)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Howden
MacKinnon
P1
51.1%
49.9%
P2
52.6%
53.2%
P3
48.8%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | OT | 04:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |