Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.4% vs Thomas 51.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 58.1%
Defensive zone
Howden 58.0%
Neutral zone
Howden 54.7%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Howden
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Howden
Thomas
Last 5: Howden 1-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Howden
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Howden
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Howden
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (381)
50.1% (615)
+0.3%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
62.2% (98)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (29)
52.6% (114)
-4.3%
On power play, Thomas has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Howden is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Howden shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Howden
Thomas
Home
47.7% (195)
51.9% (374)
Away
52.8% (233)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Howden
Thomas
P1
51.1%
49.2%
P2
52.6%
55.3%
P3
48.8%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.5%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 02:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:01 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Brett Howden |