Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Nelson 48.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 57.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Fantilli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
16
(33 meetings)
17
16
Fantilli
Nelson
Last 10: Fantilli 6-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
8
5
Fantilli
Nelson
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Fantilli
Nelson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
8
Fantilli
Nelson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
47.9% (9,695)
-3.2%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
54.5% (1,132)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
43.8% (783)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nelson
Home
47.3% (1,178)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Fantilli
Nelson
P1
44.0%
48.7%
P2
46.2%
48.5%
P3
45.9%
47.7%
OT
24.1%
45.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |