Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Laferriere on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Nelson 50.6% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 82.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 80.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 72.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.6%
21.4%
78.6%
Laferriere
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Laferriere
Nelson
Last 6: Laferriere 4-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Laferriere
2
1
Laferriere
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Laferriere
1
0
Laferriere
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Laferriere
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (322)
50.7% (879)
-8.8%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
58.6% (162)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (70)
43.4% (198)
-6.3%
On even strength, Nelson has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Laferriere is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Laferriere shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Nelson
Home
40.3% (201)
52.3% (621)
Away
42.8% (208)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Laferriere
Nelson
P1
33.1%
48.4%
P2
40.0%
53.5%
P3
48.2%
50.3%
OT
100.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
41.2%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
44.0%▲
40.0%
41.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Alex Laferriere |