Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Nelson 50.6% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 65.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 69.2%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 67.2%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
Cirelli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Cirelli
Nelson
Last 10: Cirelli 2-8 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
6
Cirelli
Nelson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
3
Cirelli
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
50.7% (879)
-0.3%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
58.6% (162)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
43.4% (198)
-6.9%
On power play, Cirelli has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nelson
Home
54.2% (395)
52.3% (621)
Away
45.0% (509)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Cirelli
Nelson
P1
50.8%
48.4%
P2
50.0%
53.5%
P3
46.6%
50.3%
OT
33.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
53.4%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |