Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 52.1%). Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Nelson 51.9% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 76.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 83.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Tkachuk
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Tkachuk
Nelson
Last 7: Tkachuk 3-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
51.3% (1,002)
-0.3%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
58.7% (126)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
51.9% (81)
-1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Nelson
Home
50.0% (140)
52.5% (590)
Away
52.2% (207)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Tkachuk
Nelson
P1
54.3%
50.5%
P2
50.0%
54.4%
P3
49.5%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
47.4%
Final 5 min
51.1%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |