Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.5% vs Giroux 60.9% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.3%
Defensive zone
Giroux 51.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Nelson
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Giroux
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Giroux
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
0
2
Nelson
Giroux
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Giroux
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (871)
60.3% (395)
-9.7%
Power Play
58.1% (160)
67.3% (107)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (193)
65.4% (153)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (429).
Nelson shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Nelson
Giroux
Home
52.3% (621)
65.9% (337)
Away
48.8% (603)
59.1% (318)
By Period
Nelson
Giroux
P1
48.3%
62.1%
P2
53.4%
64.5%
P3
50.4%
60.9%
OT
41.2%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
60.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
62.0%▲
54.5%
50.6%
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |