Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Giroux shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Giroux 57.7% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.8%
Defensive zone
Giroux 56.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Nelson
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Nelson
Giroux
Last 9: Nelson 4-5 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Giroux
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
1
5
Nelson
Giroux
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Giroux
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
59.7% (750)
-12.8%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
62.6% (190)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
51.6% (281)
-26.6%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Giroux is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (897).
Home / Away
Nelson
Giroux
Home
48.9% (521)
59.5% (580)
Away
45.5% (516)
57.3% (641)
By Period
Nelson
Giroux
P1
45.9%
56.6%
P2
48.0%
58.0%
P3
48.0%
60.8%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
64.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |