Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 67 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Giroux shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Giroux 56.8% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Giroux leads 95-70 in 165 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 79.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Nelson
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
70
-
95
(165 meetings)
70
95
Nelson
Giroux
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
26
23
Nelson
Giroux
49 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
18
49
Nelson
Giroux
67 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
26
23
Nelson
Giroux
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
55.8% (13,861)
-7.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
60.5% (4,075)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
57.4% (2,518)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Giroux is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (14,370).
Home / Away
Nelson
Giroux
Home
50.0% (5,845)
59.2% (10,252)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.5% (10,242)
By Period
Nelson
Giroux
P1
48.7%
57.5%
P2
48.5%
56.2%
P3
47.7%
57.3%
OT
45.6%
51.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |