Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Giroux shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Giroux 60.4% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Giroux 70.4%
Defensive zone
Giroux 86.8%
Neutral zone
Giroux 70.7%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 75.6%
24.4%
75.6%
Nelson
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Nelson
Giroux
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Giroux
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
3
Nelson
Giroux
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Giroux
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
59.6% (606)
-8.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
69.3% (150)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
61.4% (220)
-9.5%
On power play, Giroux has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Giroux is 60.3% vs left-shot opponents (756).
Home / Away
Nelson
Giroux
Home
52.5% (590)
65.7% (461)
Away
51.7% (619)
57.7% (515)
By Period
Nelson
Giroux
P1
50.5%
60.7%
P2
54.4%
63.7%
P3
51.4%
60.2%
OT
47.4%
46.2%
Final 5 min
57.3%
63.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
61.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |