Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Zary 42.6% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 87.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Nelson
Zary
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nelson
Zary
Last 8: Nelson 5-3 Zary
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Zary
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Zary
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zary
0
1
Nelson
Zary
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zary
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
41.8% (447)
+6.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
36.2% (58)
+18.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zary shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Zary is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zary
Home
50.0% (5,845)
41.3% (293)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
41.0% (212)
By Period
Nelson
Zary
P1
48.7%
40.4%
P2
48.5%
38.6%
P3
47.7%
45.2%
OT
45.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
34.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 11:56 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 13:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |