Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Zary 41.1% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 91.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 86.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Nelson
Zary
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nelson
Zary
Last 8: Nelson 5-3 Zary
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Zary
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Zary
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zary
0
1
Nelson
Zary
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zary
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
36.6% (205)
+14.7%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
41.7% (36)
+17.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zary shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Zary is 37.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zary
Home
52.5% (590)
38.8% (152)
Away
51.7% (619)
34.8% (89)
By Period
Nelson
Zary
P1
50.5%
33.3%
P2
54.4%
31.7%
P3
51.4%
47.5%
OT
47.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
32.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
37.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 11:56 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 13:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |