Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Pettersson 47.2% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Pettersson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 68.3%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 52.4%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 59.4%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Nelson
Pettersson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Pettersson
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Pettersson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
0
5
Nelson
Pettersson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Pettersson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pettersson
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
45.9% (790)
+4.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
55.4% (242)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
35.5% (107)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pettersson shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Pettersson is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (730).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pettersson
Home
52.3% (621)
49.3% (584)
Away
48.9% (618)
44.5% (555)
By Period
Nelson
Pettersson
P1
48.4%
45.8%
P2
53.5%
47.9%
P3
50.3%
47.1%
OT
41.2%
47.1%
Final 5 min
50.8%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |