Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Malkin 46.1% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 67.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
1
Nelson
Malkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Malkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
45.7% (219)
+5.0%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
34.6% (26)
+24.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
52.3% (621)
50.4% (113)
Away
48.9% (618)
39.4% (132)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
48.4%
47.7%
P2
53.5%
44.9%
P3
50.3%
40.0%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
35.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |