Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Malkin 48.7% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 66.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Malkin
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
2
Nelson
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Malkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.9% (776)
-1.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
66.7% (24)
-32.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
100.0% (1)
-69.6%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +69.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
48.7% (419)
49.6% (405)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.5% (396)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
44.6%
49.6%
P2
47.3%
47.2%
P3
43.0%
48.5%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 05:38 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |