Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Malkin 45.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 60-53 in 113 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 57.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
53
(113 meetings)
60
53
Nelson
Malkin
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
6
24
Nelson
Malkin
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
23
15
Nelson
Malkin
38 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
31
14
Nelson
Malkin
45 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
45.6% (10,081)
+2.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.1% (668)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
32.2% (59)
+11.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.6% (5,395)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.0% (5,436)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
48.7%
45.9%
P2
48.5%
46.2%
P3
47.7%
45.2%
OT
45.6%
49.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:05 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 05:38 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 04:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 3 | 01:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 09:50 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:08 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |