Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Malkin 46.4% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 69.6%
Defensive zone
Malkin 51.2%
Neutral zone
Malkin 57.5%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Malkin
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
2
Nelson
Malkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Malkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
1
Nelson
Malkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
45.5% (602)
+5.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.0% (30)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
100.0% (1)
-48.1%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +48.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (431).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
52.5% (590)
47.5% (326)
Away
51.7% (619)
44.0% (307)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
50.5%
49.3%
P2
54.4%
44.7%
P3
51.4%
42.3%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:05 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |