Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Malkin 43.5% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 77.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.0%
Neutral zone
Malkin 61.8%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Nelson
Malkin
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
2
Nelson
Malkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Malkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
3
Nelson
Malkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
43.1% (733)
+0.8%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
31.3% (16)
+30.2%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
16.7% (6)
+24.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +30.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (489).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
42.9% (406)
42.6% (338)
Away
45.8% (393)
42.7% (417)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
44.1%
40.9%
P2
47.2%
45.3%
P3
42.2%
42.0%
OT
30.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2015 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 3 | 01:49 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 3 | 01:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 1 | 17:17 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 1 | 10:01 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |