Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Nazar 45.7% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Nelson
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nelson
Nazar
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Nazar
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
2
Nelson
Nazar
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Nazar
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
45.2% (314)
+6.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
39.5% (38)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
44.8% (29)
+7.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Nazar is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nazar
Home
52.5% (590)
43.4% (196)
Away
51.7% (619)
45.9% (185)
By Period
Nelson
Nazar
P1
50.5%
47.3%
P2
54.4%
40.3%
P3
51.4%
46.7%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |