Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Nazar 46.6% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 86.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 83.2%
83.2%
16.8%
Nelson
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
6
(17 meetings)
11
6
Nelson
Nazar
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Nazar
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
5
Nelson
Nazar
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Nazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
46.9% (533)
+3.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
49.2% (132)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
25.6% (39)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nazar
Home
52.3% (621)
45.0% (329)
Away
48.9% (618)
47.2% (375)
By Period
Nelson
Nazar
P1
48.4%
47.2%
P2
53.5%
43.1%
P3
50.3%
46.8%
OT
41.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:02 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |