Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Miller 59.7% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 62.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.0%
Neutral zone
Miller 51.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Nelson
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Nelson
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
61.9% (459)
-11.9%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
66.0% (103)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
46.2% (52)
-4.2%
On even strength, Miller has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. Miller is 62.5% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Home / Away
Nelson
Miller
Home
50.4% (472)
62.5% (280)
Away
48.6% (477)
60.2% (334)
By Period
Nelson
Miller
P1
47.2%
59.2%
P2
53.4%
65.6%
P3
47.8%
59.1%
OT
50.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
47.6%
63.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Miller
66.0%▬
66.5%
61.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |