Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Miller 57.6% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 69.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Nelson
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Miller
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Nelson
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
4
Nelson
Miller
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
1
2
Nelson
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
58.2% (823)
-6.9%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
58.2% (165)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
58.9% (90)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Miller is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (754).
Home / Away
Nelson
Miller
Home
52.5% (590)
59.1% (558)
Away
51.7% (619)
57.3% (520)
By Period
Nelson
Miller
P1
50.5%
60.7%
P2
54.4%
57.5%
P3
51.4%
56.1%
OT
47.4%
73.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:20 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |