Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Miller 59.6% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 58.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.0%
Neutral zone
Miller 53.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Nelson
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Nelson
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
61.5% (540)
-10.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
65.6% (122)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
47.7% (65)
-4.3%
On even strength, Miller has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Miller is 61.7% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Home / Away
Nelson
Miller
Home
52.3% (621)
62.1% (372)
Away
48.9% (618)
59.7% (355)
By Period
Nelson
Miller
P1
48.4%
58.9%
P2
53.5%
63.9%
P3
50.3%
59.8%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
63.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |