Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Miller 54.8% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 31-23 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 85.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 72.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Nelson
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
31
(54 meetings)
23
31
Nelson
Miller
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
5
13
Nelson
Miller
18 total
Defensive Zone
Even
13
13
Nelson
Miller
26 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Nelson
Miller
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
55.2% (6,648)
-7.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.9% (1,285)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.2% (913)
-4.4%
On even strength, Miller has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Miller is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,907).
Home / Away
Nelson
Miller
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.9% (4,578)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
53.8% (4,268)
By Period
Nelson
Miller
P1
48.7%
54.7%
P2
48.5%
55.6%
P3
47.7%
54.0%
OT
45.6%
62.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:20 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:59 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |