Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Danforth 52.5% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.4%
Defensive zone
Danforth 61.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Nelson
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
0
1
Nelson
Danforth
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Danforth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
54.3% (162)
-4.4%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
50.0% (10)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
51.9% (27)
-23.3%
On penalty kill, Danforth has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Danforth is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danforth
Home
49.8% (458)
51.9% (81)
Away
49.0% (506)
55.1% (118)
By Period
Nelson
Danforth
P1
50.1%
49.2%
P2
45.4%
50.8%
P3
52.7%
62.9%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |