Brock Nelson vs Justin Danforth

Brock NelsonL vs Justin DanforthR
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
2025-262024-252023-242022-232021-22 All Seasons
Scouting Report

Justin Danforth holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Danforth shoots right.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Nelson 48.3% vs Danforth 49.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor Danforth leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone Nelson 67.7%
Defensive zone Danforth 65.9%
Neutral zone Danforth 51.7%
Result Justin Danforth favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Nelson Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
6 - 6 (12 meetings)
6
6
Nelson Danforth
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Danforth

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson Danforth
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson Danforth
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
2
Nelson Danforth
3 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Nelson
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
51.8% (1,018)
-3.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.0% (36)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
40.1% (207)
+3.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.5% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Danforth is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (937).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danforth
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.4% (619)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.3% (642)
By Period
Nelson
Danforth
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
48.5%
51.4%
P3
47.7%
48.3%
OT
45.6%
64.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Oct 13, 2025 3 16:12 Offensive Brock Nelson
Oct 13, 2025 2 08:54 Defensive Justin Danforth
Oct 13, 2025 2 00:28 Neutral Justin Danforth
Oct 13, 2025 2 00:23 Defensive Brock Nelson
Oct 13, 2025 1 13:42 Offensive Brock Nelson
Oct 13, 2025 1 06:08 Offensive Justin Danforth
Apr 3, 2025 1 18:05 Neutral Justin Danforth
Apr 4, 2024 3 10:14 Defensive Brock Nelson
Apr 4, 2024 3 04:24 Defensive Justin Danforth
Apr 4, 2024 1 13:48 Neutral Brock Nelson
Mar 31, 2022 2 05:22 Offensive Justin Danforth
Mar 29, 2022 1 10:16 Defensive Brock Nelson
Nelson's Profile | Danforth's Profile