Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Danforth shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Danforth 49.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.0%
Defensive zone
Danforth 73.5%
Neutral zone
Danforth 53.3%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Nelson
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
0
1
Nelson
Danforth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
50.5% (546)
+0.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.0% (14)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
43.6% (101)
+8.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Danforth is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danforth
Home
52.5% (590)
51.1% (315)
Away
51.7% (619)
48.0% (346)
By Period
Nelson
Danforth
P1
50.5%
49.5%
P2
54.4%
51.4%
P3
51.4%
46.6%
OT
47.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |