Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Bergeron 56.1% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Bergeron 82.1%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 66.6%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 67.3%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Nelson
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nelson
Bergeron
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Bergeron
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Bergeron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Bergeron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
56.2% (940)
-8.8%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
61.6% (284)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
50.3% (165)
-7.4%
On power play, Bergeron has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Nelson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (425).
Nelson shoots left. Bergeron is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (928).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bergeron
Home
51.0% (641)
57.7% (712)
Away
44.1% (605)
55.4% (677)
By Period
Nelson
Bergeron
P1
48.2%
55.0%
P2
48.1%
57.1%
P3
46.9%
58.2%
OT
42.9%
48.1%
Final 5 min
44.6%
58.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 11:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 05:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 06:13 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 00:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |