Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Bergeron 60.5% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Bergeron leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Nelson
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Nelson
Bergeron
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
2
3
Nelson
Bergeron
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
2
4
Nelson
Bergeron
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Bergeron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
62.5% (1,109)
-15.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
62.2% (352)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
53.5% (245)
-28.5%
On penalty kill, Bergeron has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Bergeron is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,178).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bergeron
Home
48.9% (521)
61.9% (917)
Away
45.5% (516)
60.2% (789)
By Period
Nelson
Bergeron
P1
45.9%
60.8%
P2
48.0%
60.3%
P3
48.0%
63.0%
OT
33.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 05:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 14:27 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 05:15 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |