Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Stastny 55.4% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Nelson
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Nelson
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
59.2% (370)
-9.3%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
40.9% (44)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
51.7% (58)
-23.1%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stastny
Home
49.8% (458)
57.7% (215)
Away
49.0% (506)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Nelson
Stastny
P1
50.1%
57.7%
P2
45.4%
54.2%
P3
52.7%
57.7%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |